Probability plays a key role in data interpretation by helping us measure uncertainty and make predictions based on data. Instead of relying on guesses, probability gives us a way to express how likely an event is to happen — using numbers between 0 and 1 (or 0% to 100%).
In simple terms, probability helps answer questions like:
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How confident are we in our results?
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What are the chances this happened by random chance?
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Can we trust the trend we’re seeing in the data?
Imagine you run an email campaign and get a 10% click-through rate. Using probability, you can test whether this result is significantly better than your average of 5% — or if it might have happened by chance.
You might use a statistical test to calculate a “p-value.”
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If the p-value is very low (typically less than 0.05), you can say the result is statistically significant.